Jan 30, 2014, 7:30 PM EDT
Michael Young led the American League in hits for the second time in his career in 2011, finishing with 213. That brought his career total to 2,061 through age 34, and despite a late start — he didn’t collect his first hit in the majors until age 24 — he appeared to have some shot at getting to 3,000.
Bill James has long had what he calls “The Favorite Toy,” a system that looks at the previous year’s results, career totals and age before spitting out a percentage score of a player’s chances of reaching a certain milestone. After the 2011 season, James had 12 players with at least a 20-percent chance of getting 3,000 hits, not including Derek Jeter, who was already there.
Alex Rodriguez – 94%
Johnny Damon – 86%
Vladimir Guerrero – 67%
Albert Pujols – 56%
Miguel Cabrera – 46%
Ichiro Suzuki – 38%
Michael Young – 34%
Adrian Beltre – 30%
Robinson Cano – 28%
Juan Pierre – 27%
Carl Crawford – 23%
Nick Markakis – 22%
Given the percentages James came up with, five or six of the above players should eventually get to 3,000 hits. And now, two years later:
Alex Rodriguez: 2,939 – suspended for 2014
Johnny Damon: 2,769 – out of baseball in 2013
Vladimir Guerrero: 2,590 – out of baseball in 2013, retired
Albert Pujols: 2,347
Miguel Cabrera: 1,995
Ichiro Suzuki: 2,742
Michael Young: 2,375 – retired
Adrian Beltre: 2,426
Robinson Cano: 1,649
Juan Pierre: 2,217
Carl Crawford: 1,765
Nick Markakis: 1,370
A-Rod need only come back for one more year to get 3,000. He should pull that off unless he’s blackballed. Despite his setbacks the last two years, Pujols should still have more than 653 hits left in him. He is signed for eight more years, after all. Cabrera remains very much on pace. Ichiro, though, is a big long shot now. Beltre is looking pretty good with 574 hits to go as he turns 35 in April. The same goes for Cano, though he’s just over halfway there at the moment. The bottom three all appear done for. Crawford may stay healthy enough to get to 2,500 or so, but 3,000 is out of reach.
So, that’s three likelies in Rodriguez, Pujols and Cabrera and two maybes in Beltre and Cano. Which isn’t so bad. Unfortunately, the reduction in teams willing to suit up pure DHs hurt the cause for Damon and Guerrero. Both were still decent hitters, but neither had the power to convince a team he was worthy of a few million dollars and a roster spot. I do believe that we’ll someday see the DH in both leagues. For better or worse, not having it now most likely cost Damon 3,000 hits, maybe Guerrero, too.
As for the now 37-year-old Young, well, there probably would have been more demand for his services with another 15 DH jobs open in the NL. However, he wasn’t likely to remain productive enough to get another 625 hits anyway.
In the old days, it seemed like quite an exception when a player was about as productive in his mid-30s as he was during his prime years. Then it wasn’t as much of an exception for a while, perhaps because of PEDs and amphetamines. Now it’s starting to look like an exception again.
Jun 30, 2015, 8:26 PM EDT
Watch as Dee Gordon belts a ball into the right-center field gap and turns on the jets …
Jun 30, 2015, 7:41 PM EDT
Gyorko was optioned to the minors on June 10 after batting .210/.282/.311 over his first 131 plate appearances …
Jun 30, 2015, 6:35 PM EDT
Tim Lincecum will be placed on the disabled list with a forearm bruise to open a rotation spot.
Jun 30, 2015, 5:23 PM EDT
Like pretty much everyone else, actually.
Jun 30, 2015, 4:29 PM EDT
Which was pretty much the only choice they had, yes?
Jun 30, 2015, 3:58 PM EDT
Let us use this column to talk a bit about how rumors got started back in the day and how they get started now.
Jun 30, 2015, 3:20 PM EDT
Gallo played 25 games in his first taste of the big leagues.
Jun 30, 2015, 2:46 PM EDT
Chris Bassitt will start in his place.
Jun 30, 2015, 2:31 PM EDT
No one is quite sure when All-Star third baseman David Wright will be back.
Jun 30, 2015, 1:48 PM EDT
Not that anyone really wants you to know it’s up for bid.
Jun 30, 2015, 12:46 PM EDT
He’s making $4.8 million.
Jun 30, 2015, 12:30 PM EDT
The old park housed the Eugene Emeralds until 2009
Jun 30, 2015, 12:02 PM EDT
Two men enter. One man leaves.
Jun 30, 2015, 11:26 AM EDT
I’d like to tell you a story about bullpen history and a young man named Tony La Russa.
Jun 30, 2015, 10:47 AM EDT
The majority of the baseball-watching world hasn’t seemed to notice yet.
Jun 30, 2015, 10:15 AM EDT
Warren had a 3.59 ERA in 14 starts.
Jun 30, 2015, 9:25 AM EDT
And Chris Young was not too pleased about it.
Jun 30, 2015, 8:51 AM EDT
It goes far, far deeper than you ever could’ve imagined.
Jun 30, 2015, 8:30 AM EDT
One he gets past 45 pitches he turns every opposing hitter into Lou Gehrig.
Jun 30, 2015, 7:32 AM EDT
Mike Trout put on a clinic against the Yankees last night.
- Rangers activate Josh Hamilton from disabled list, send prospect Joey Gallo to Triple-A 9
- Huston Street says he’d retire if he was used like a 1970s-style fireman 46
- CC Sabathia looks like a reliever 24
- And That Happened: Monday’s scores and highlights 58
- AL All-Star voting update: now “only” five Royals in the starting lineup 59
- Andy MacPhail introduced by the Phillies. And the first topic of conversation is sabermetrics 20
- What a world: Orioles are in first place and Ubaldo Jimenez has been their ace 16
- Settling the Scores: Sunday’s results 99
- With the same-sex marriage decision, the San Francisco Giants get another big win (275)
- Joe Maddon is the latest manager to rip instant replay. He’s got a point. (109)
- Settling the Scores: Sunday’s results (99)
- There was a super ump show in Chicago yesterday (75)
- And That Happened: Wednesday’s scores and highlights (75)