Jan 30, 2014, 7:30 PM EDT
Michael Young led the American League in hits for the second time in his career in 2011, finishing with 213. That brought his career total to 2,061 through age 34, and despite a late start — he didn’t collect his first hit in the majors until age 24 — he appeared to have some shot at getting to 3,000.
Bill James has long had what he calls “The Favorite Toy,” a system that looks at the previous year’s results, career totals and age before spitting out a percentage score of a player’s chances of reaching a certain milestone. After the 2011 season, James had 12 players with at least a 20-percent chance of getting 3,000 hits, not including Derek Jeter, who was already there.
Alex Rodriguez – 94%
Johnny Damon – 86%
Vladimir Guerrero – 67%
Albert Pujols – 56%
Miguel Cabrera – 46%
Ichiro Suzuki – 38%
Michael Young – 34%
Adrian Beltre – 30%
Robinson Cano – 28%
Juan Pierre – 27%
Carl Crawford – 23%
Nick Markakis – 22%
Given the percentages James came up with, five or six of the above players should eventually get to 3,000 hits. And now, two years later:
Alex Rodriguez: 2,939 – suspended for 2014
Johnny Damon: 2,769 – out of baseball in 2013
Vladimir Guerrero: 2,590 – out of baseball in 2013, retired
Albert Pujols: 2,347
Miguel Cabrera: 1,995
Ichiro Suzuki: 2,742
Michael Young: 2,375 – retired
Adrian Beltre: 2,426
Robinson Cano: 1,649
Juan Pierre: 2,217
Carl Crawford: 1,765
Nick Markakis: 1,370
A-Rod need only come back for one more year to get 3,000. He should pull that off unless he’s blackballed. Despite his setbacks the last two years, Pujols should still have more than 653 hits left in him. He is signed for eight more years, after all. Cabrera remains very much on pace. Ichiro, though, is a big long shot now. Beltre is looking pretty good with 574 hits to go as he turns 35 in April. The same goes for Cano, though he’s just over halfway there at the moment. The bottom three all appear done for. Crawford may stay healthy enough to get to 2,500 or so, but 3,000 is out of reach.
So, that’s three likelies in Rodriguez, Pujols and Cabrera and two maybes in Beltre and Cano. Which isn’t so bad. Unfortunately, the reduction in teams willing to suit up pure DHs hurt the cause for Damon and Guerrero. Both were still decent hitters, but neither had the power to convince a team he was worthy of a few million dollars and a roster spot. I do believe that we’ll someday see the DH in both leagues. For better or worse, not having it now most likely cost Damon 3,000 hits, maybe Guerrero, too.
As for the now 37-year-old Young, well, there probably would have been more demand for his services with another 15 DH jobs open in the NL. However, he wasn’t likely to remain productive enough to get another 625 hits anyway.
In the old days, it seemed like quite an exception when a player was about as productive in his mid-30s as he was during his prime years. Then it wasn’t as much of an exception for a while, perhaps because of PEDs and amphetamines. Now it’s starting to look like an exception again.
Jul 28, 2015, 8:40 PM EDT
Hamels would join Dallas Keuchel and Scott Kazmir in an excellent, postseason-ready Astros rotation.
Jul 28, 2015, 7:47 PM EDT
Angels center fielder Mike Trout went 4-for-4 with two homers and five RBI in Sunday’s series finale against the Rangers, but he also suffered a left wrist injury in that game when he tried to make a diving catch …
Jul 28, 2015, 6:54 PM EDT
In a span of about 10 minutes the Angels landed two outfielders …
Jul 28, 2015, 6:30 PM EDT
This time it’s for both Stanozolol and Boldenone.
Jul 28, 2015, 6:16 PM EDT
Papelbon owns a sparkling 1.59 ERA and 40/8 K/BB ratio in 39 2/3 innings this season for the Phillies, and he’s 17-for-17 in save opportunities.
Jul 28, 2015, 4:30 PM EDT
Voters who are more than 10 years removed from covering the game will no longer get to vote in Hall of Fame elections
Jul 28, 2015, 4:17 PM EDT
Hamels threw a no-hitter against Cubs on Saturday.
Jul 28, 2015, 4:09 PM EDT
The Nats may soon have two solid closers.
Jul 28, 2015, 4:00 PM EDT
And he thinks Carlos Gonzalez is the next one out the door. He’s probably right.
Jul 28, 2015, 3:45 PM EDT
Designated for assignment by the Giants last week.
Jul 28, 2015, 3:29 PM EDT
Why, I have no idea.
Jul 28, 2015, 2:40 PM EDT
General manager Dayton Moore is not messing around.
Jul 28, 2015, 1:01 PM EDT
Washington or elsewhere?
Jul 28, 2015, 11:50 AM EDT
Coors Field is powerful, but Tulowitzki is great anywhere.
Jul 28, 2015, 11:33 AM EDT
He would be a nice addition to the Nats’ pen, but a costly one given his $13 million vesting option.
Jul 28, 2015, 11:19 AM EDT
Swanson was scheduled to join a minor-league team later this week after signing for $6.5 million.
Jul 28, 2015, 11:08 AM EDT
He had a right to be angry, but maybe he overdid it a bit?
Jul 28, 2015, 10:47 AM EDT
Washington is getting healthier, but still not quite healthy.
Jul 28, 2015, 10:37 AM EDT
Great Moments in Rounding Error?
Jul 28, 2015, 10:11 AM EDT
His last five games have been insane.
- Astros “making a strong effort” for Phillies ace Cole Hamels 0
- Angels acquire outfielders David Murphy and David DeJesus 19
- Jenrry Mejia gets 162-game ban for second failed PED test 22
- Nationals, Phillies agree to Jonathan Papelbon trade 54
- The Hall of Fame just made a MAJOR change to the Hall of Fame voting process 66
- Royals make another big move, get Ben Zobrist from A’s 85
- And That Happened: Monday’s scores and highlights 49
- The Troy Tulowitzki trade might be the strangest deadline deal ever 40
- The MLBPA is considering withholding cooperation with ESPN, Fox over Colin Cowherd’s comments (157)
- The Cubs are in discussions with the Phillies on Cole Hamels (146)
- Colin Cowherd wonders how baseball can be considered “complicated” if Dominicans can understand it (129)
- Major League Baseball rips Colin Cowherd in an official statement (123)
- Settling the Scores: Wednesday’s results (106)