Jan 30, 2014, 7:30 PM EDT
Michael Young led the American League in hits for the second time in his career in 2011, finishing with 213. That brought his career total to 2,061 through age 34, and despite a late start — he didn’t collect his first hit in the majors until age 24 — he appeared to have some shot at getting to 3,000.
Bill James has long had what he calls “The Favorite Toy,” a system that looks at the previous year’s results, career totals and age before spitting out a percentage score of a player’s chances of reaching a certain milestone. After the 2011 season, James had 12 players with at least a 20-percent chance of getting 3,000 hits, not including Derek Jeter, who was already there.
Alex Rodriguez – 94%
Johnny Damon – 86%
Vladimir Guerrero – 67%
Albert Pujols – 56%
Miguel Cabrera – 46%
Ichiro Suzuki – 38%
Michael Young – 34%
Adrian Beltre – 30%
Robinson Cano – 28%
Juan Pierre – 27%
Carl Crawford – 23%
Nick Markakis – 22%
Given the percentages James came up with, five or six of the above players should eventually get to 3,000 hits. And now, two years later:
Alex Rodriguez: 2,939 – suspended for 2014
Johnny Damon: 2,769 – out of baseball in 2013
Vladimir Guerrero: 2,590 – out of baseball in 2013, retired
Albert Pujols: 2,347
Miguel Cabrera: 1,995
Ichiro Suzuki: 2,742
Michael Young: 2,375 – retired
Adrian Beltre: 2,426
Robinson Cano: 1,649
Juan Pierre: 2,217
Carl Crawford: 1,765
Nick Markakis: 1,370
A-Rod need only come back for one more year to get 3,000. He should pull that off unless he’s blackballed. Despite his setbacks the last two years, Pujols should still have more than 653 hits left in him. He is signed for eight more years, after all. Cabrera remains very much on pace. Ichiro, though, is a big long shot now. Beltre is looking pretty good with 574 hits to go as he turns 35 in April. The same goes for Cano, though he’s just over halfway there at the moment. The bottom three all appear done for. Crawford may stay healthy enough to get to 2,500 or so, but 3,000 is out of reach.
So, that’s three likelies in Rodriguez, Pujols and Cabrera and two maybes in Beltre and Cano. Which isn’t so bad. Unfortunately, the reduction in teams willing to suit up pure DHs hurt the cause for Damon and Guerrero. Both were still decent hitters, but neither had the power to convince a team he was worthy of a few million dollars and a roster spot. I do believe that we’ll someday see the DH in both leagues. For better or worse, not having it now most likely cost Damon 3,000 hits, maybe Guerrero, too.
As for the now 37-year-old Young, well, there probably would have been more demand for his services with another 15 DH jobs open in the NL. However, he wasn’t likely to remain productive enough to get another 625 hits anyway.
In the old days, it seemed like quite an exception when a player was about as productive in his mid-30s as he was during his prime years. Then it wasn’t as much of an exception for a while, perhaps because of PEDs and amphetamines. Now it’s starting to look like an exception again.
Aug 1, 2014, 9:24 AM EDT
He’s probably the fifth starter on this Tigers team at the moment. So why not?
Aug 1, 2014, 8:55 AM EDT
A good trade, I think, but it probably wasn’t handled 100% perfectly.
Aug 1, 2014, 8:27 AM EDT
A rule that was designed to protect catchers is being used as a weapon against them.
Aug 1, 2014, 6:35 AM EDT
A good day for Clayton Kershaw. A bad day for Cliff Lee, Tyler Skaggs and Eric Hosmer.
Jul 31, 2014, 11:24 PM EDT
Royals robbed of their hottest hitter after quiet deadline day Thursday.
Jul 31, 2014, 11:19 PM EDT
Cliff Lee has aggravated the flexor pronator strain that has already cost him two months. It’s safe to say that his season is over.
Jul 31, 2014, 10:31 PM EDT
C.J. Wilson landed on the disabled list earlier this month due to an ankle sprain, but he’s due to rejoin the Angels’ rotation on Saturday.
Jul 31, 2014, 10:12 PM EDT
Keeping score in the aftermath of Thursday’s deadline deals.
Jul 31, 2014, 9:50 PM EDT
The arms race between the Athletics and Tigers is just too much fun.
Jul 31, 2014, 8:59 PM EDT
Angels left-hander Tyler Skaggs was working on a no-hitter against the Orioles this evening before he left his start with forearm tightness.
Jul 31, 2014, 7:45 PM EDT
Yoenis Cespedes t-shirt night is a little awkward now that he’s with the Red Sox, but the Athletics are going ahead with the giveaway anyway.
Jul 31, 2014, 6:58 PM EDT
For some reason, FOX 13 in Tampa Bay thought it was a good idea to make a classless joke about Detroit to console Rays fans following the David Price trade.
Jul 31, 2014, 6:16 PM EDT
Matt Cain’s ulnar collateral ligament has checked out fine, but he’s dealing with “loose bodies” in his throwing elbow and it’s unclear when he’ll pitch again.
Jul 31, 2014, 5:28 PM EDT
Once upon a time Andy Marte was one of the best prospects in baseball. He cracked Baseball America’s top 15 list in 2004, 2005, and 2006.
Jul 31, 2014, 5:15 PM EDT
You happy, Philly?
Jul 31, 2014, 4:52 PM EDT
The Braves get their lefty and a venerable super sub. The Cubs get an interesting catching prospect.
Jul 31, 2014, 4:46 PM EDT
Shortly after acquiring Stephen Drew and Martin Prado in separate trades this afternoon the Yankees announced that starting second baseman Brian Roberts has been designated for assignment.
Jul 31, 2014, 4:30 PM EDT
Some pitching heading Miami’s way.
Jul 31, 2014, 4:20 PM EDT
All month the assumption has been that the Twins would either sign Kurt Suzuki to a contract extension or trade the 30-year-old impending free agent in the middle of his career-year.
Jul 31, 2014, 4:16 PM EDT
A super sub at heart who can and will be used at multiple positions by the Yankees.
- And That Happened: Thursday’s scores and highlights 22
- Cliff Lee placed on DL with recurrence of flexor pronator strain 24
- Winners and losers at the trade deadline 32
- 2014 Trade Deadline Tracker 49
- ACES GALORE: The Rays trade David Price to the Tigers 137
- Red Sox trade John Lackey to Cardinals for Allen Craig and Joe Kelly 89
- The Lester trade is a win-win 112
- Jon Lester, Jonny Gomes heading to Oakland for Yoenis Cespedes 165
- “Caucasians” t-shirts are hot sellers on Canadian Indian reservations (199)
- Jon Lester, Jonny Gomes heading to Oakland for Yoenis Cespedes (165)
- ACES GALORE: The Rays trade David Price to the Tigers (137)
- Rangers’ retirement gifts for Derek Jeter: Yankees cowboy boots, signed George W. Bush photo (126)
- Tampa Bay news station tweets classless Detroit joke following David Price trade (119)