Jan 30, 2014, 7:30 PM EDT
Michael Young led the American League in hits for the second time in his career in 2011, finishing with 213. That brought his career total to 2,061 through age 34, and despite a late start — he didn’t collect his first hit in the majors until age 24 — he appeared to have some shot at getting to 3,000.
Bill James has long had what he calls “The Favorite Toy,” a system that looks at the previous year’s results, career totals and age before spitting out a percentage score of a player’s chances of reaching a certain milestone. After the 2011 season, James had 12 players with at least a 20-percent chance of getting 3,000 hits, not including Derek Jeter, who was already there.
Alex Rodriguez – 94%
Johnny Damon – 86%
Vladimir Guerrero – 67%
Albert Pujols – 56%
Miguel Cabrera – 46%
Ichiro Suzuki – 38%
Michael Young – 34%
Adrian Beltre – 30%
Robinson Cano – 28%
Juan Pierre – 27%
Carl Crawford – 23%
Nick Markakis – 22%
Given the percentages James came up with, five or six of the above players should eventually get to 3,000 hits. And now, two years later:
Alex Rodriguez: 2,939 – suspended for 2014
Johnny Damon: 2,769 – out of baseball in 2013
Vladimir Guerrero: 2,590 – out of baseball in 2013, retired
Albert Pujols: 2,347
Miguel Cabrera: 1,995
Ichiro Suzuki: 2,742
Michael Young: 2,375 – retired
Adrian Beltre: 2,426
Robinson Cano: 1,649
Juan Pierre: 2,217
Carl Crawford: 1,765
Nick Markakis: 1,370
A-Rod need only come back for one more year to get 3,000. He should pull that off unless he’s blackballed. Despite his setbacks the last two years, Pujols should still have more than 653 hits left in him. He is signed for eight more years, after all. Cabrera remains very much on pace. Ichiro, though, is a big long shot now. Beltre is looking pretty good with 574 hits to go as he turns 35 in April. The same goes for Cano, though he’s just over halfway there at the moment. The bottom three all appear done for. Crawford may stay healthy enough to get to 2,500 or so, but 3,000 is out of reach.
So, that’s three likelies in Rodriguez, Pujols and Cabrera and two maybes in Beltre and Cano. Which isn’t so bad. Unfortunately, the reduction in teams willing to suit up pure DHs hurt the cause for Damon and Guerrero. Both were still decent hitters, but neither had the power to convince a team he was worthy of a few million dollars and a roster spot. I do believe that we’ll someday see the DH in both leagues. For better or worse, not having it now most likely cost Damon 3,000 hits, maybe Guerrero, too.
As for the now 37-year-old Young, well, there probably would have been more demand for his services with another 15 DH jobs open in the NL. However, he wasn’t likely to remain productive enough to get another 625 hits anyway.
In the old days, it seemed like quite an exception when a player was about as productive in his mid-30s as he was during his prime years. Then it wasn’t as much of an exception for a while, perhaps because of PEDs and amphetamines. Now it’s starting to look like an exception again.
Apr 27, 2015, 1:22 PM EDT
He was traded from the Nationals to the Dodgers just last week.
Apr 27, 2015, 1:08 PM EDT
Powerful words from the Orioles’ executive in the wake of the death of Freddie Gray.
Apr 27, 2015, 12:32 PM EDT
Some people are really committed. Others are so committed, maybe they should be committed.
Apr 27, 2015, 11:19 AM EDT
Perez posted a 9.39 ERA in six appearances for Triple-A Colorado Springs.
Apr 27, 2015, 11:03 AM EDT
“Outdoor baseball is stupid, and domes should be universal. My column:”
Apr 27, 2015, 10:47 AM EDT
Gonzalez insists he’s healthy.
Apr 27, 2015, 10:15 AM EDT
He hasn’t thrown since cutting short a bullpen session 10 days ago.
Apr 27, 2015, 9:24 AM EDT
The Marlins lose: rumors of the manager being on the hot seat. They win: he’s safe. That’s the sort of reaction that stable teams run by wise men pursue, right?
Apr 27, 2015, 8:34 AM EDT
And no, I don’t say that just because Adam Wainwright has been lost for the season due to an injury sustained while hitting.
Apr 27, 2015, 7:09 AM EDT
“Can you pitch, Dustin? Like, every fifth day? I’m serious.”
Apr 26, 2015, 11:05 PM EDT
Jose Abreu, one might say, is good at hitting baseballs.
Apr 26, 2015, 10:15 PM EDT
Max Scherzer made an argument for bringing the DH to the National League.
Apr 26, 2015, 9:25 PM EDT
Perhaps Phillies GM Ruben Amaro was right to hold onto Cole Hamels.
Apr 26, 2015, 8:39 PM EDT
Alex Rodriguez hit his 659th career home run on Sunday night against the Mets, leaving him one shy of tying Willie Mays.
Apr 26, 2015, 7:45 PM EDT
Alex Gordon made an exceptional catch to help Edinson Volquez in Sunday’s game against the White Sox.
Apr 26, 2015, 6:56 PM EDT
Steve Bartman, is that you?
Apr 26, 2015, 6:05 PM EDT
The Orioles set a club record for runs scored and the Red Sox starting rotation continues to falter.
Apr 26, 2015, 5:17 PM EDT
As first reported by Jeff Hem, the play-by-play announcer for the Triple-A Nashville Sounds, the Athletics have signed veteran infielder Ryan Roberts to a minor league contract.
Apr 26, 2015, 4:22 PM EDT
Graveman allowed six earned runs in 4 2/3 innings Saturday in a loss to the Astros, falling to 1-2 on the season with an 8.27 ERA and 2.02 WHIP in 16 1/3 total frames (four starts).
Apr 26, 2015, 2:58 PM EDT
Two important Dodgers are now on the shelf.
- Pitchers batting is dumb and the DH should be universal 333
- And That Happened: Sunday’s scores and highlights 72
- Alex Rodriguez hits 659th career home run, now one shy of tying Willie Mays 45
- Max Scherzer doubtful for next start due to thumb injury 5
- Protesters converge on Oriole Park at Camden Yards 149
- It sure sounds like Adam Wainwright suffered a torn Achilles tendon on Saturday night 44
- Settling the Score: Saturday’s results 33
- Report: Rangers will pay Josh Hamilton less than $7 million; deal includes opt-out after two years 99
- Pitchers batting is dumb and the DH should be universal (337)
- The early leaders in MLB’s “Franchise Four” thing have been announced (166)
- The Royals and White Sox had a benches-clearing fracas, five players ejected (161)
- Protesters converge on Oriole Park at Camden Yards (149)
- Kelvin Herrera gets a five-game suspension; Yordano Ventura fined (133)