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UPDATE: Homer Bailey and the Reds reach a six-year, $105 million extension

Feb 19, 2014, 1:05 PM EDT

Homer Bailey AP AP

UPDATE: Mark Sheldon reports that the deal is done. Six years, $105 million with a mutual option for a seventh.

1:05 PMKen Rosenthal reports that the Homer Bailey extension with the Reds is “all but done.”  The deal is for six years and between $100 million and $110 million according to Rosenthal and Jon Heyman. This deal will avoid an arbitration hearing and prevent Bailey from hitting the open market next winter.

Bailey has pitched seven years for the Reds. He’s come on much more strongly the past two, however, putting up ERA+ of 110 and 112 and starting 32 and 33 games, respectively. While he has not yet put together a totally superior season, the kind of performance he has shown is now getting guys contracts in excess of $50 million pretty routinely. If Bailey has a year everyone has long thought he was capable of, that $100 million would likely be easily eclipsed if he were to hit the free agent market before the 2015 season.

  1. stex52 - Feb 19, 2014 at 1:09 PM

    If he is still on the upward curve, as the stats seem to indicate, it could be a good deal. But I would say it is an overpay on his volume of work to date.

    • moogro - Feb 19, 2014 at 1:24 PM

      I think that’s right. This deal is to lock him up and hope for the best.

  2. gothapotamus90210 - Feb 19, 2014 at 1:33 PM

    Even though he’s had decent back-to-back seasons, his combined WAR was only 5.7. The price seems a bit steep for a player without a remarkable track record.

  3. jm91rs - Feb 19, 2014 at 1:35 PM

    Anyone know the TV contract situation for the Reds? They’re locking up a lot of money, I’m assuming they’re one of the teams close to a new deal before the bubble bursts?

    • jonrox - Feb 19, 2014 at 1:44 PM

      Pretty sure the current deal expires after the 2015 season.

  4. jonrox - Feb 19, 2014 at 1:38 PM

    Based on the going rate, he only needs to do about 3 WAR per season to earn his contract ($6m/WAR). He put up a little more than 3 last season, has improved every year, and is entering is prime. I think the Reds did well on the extension.

    • 78mu - Feb 19, 2014 at 5:39 PM

      I think he can outperform the contract for the next three years – it’s always those years at the end of the contracts that can be a problem.

  5. uyf1950 - Feb 19, 2014 at 1:41 PM

    In today’s baseball market place it’s not a bad deal for either the player or the team. Like any long term deal for the team to come out ahead the player has to remain healthy and in this case continue to improve. Which my gut tells me Bailey will.

    Bailey now joins Kershaw as 2 of the “star” starting pitchers that were scheduled to be FA’s for 2015 but aren’t now.

    • uyf1950 - Feb 19, 2014 at 2:18 PM

      Bailey is guaranteed $18.3MM AAV ($105MM plus a $5MM buyout if the 7th year $25MM option isn’t picked up).

  6. ereed1286 - Feb 19, 2014 at 1:52 PM

    Adam Wainwright is making only $2 million more per year during this time. Props to John Mozeliak and the St. Louis Cardinals for making financially sound decisions.

    • uyf1950 - Feb 19, 2014 at 2:04 PM

      You probably should thank Wainwright more then the Cardinals. Since he was willing to not only give the Cardinals a “hometown” discount but to be paid substantially less then his marketplace value.

      • ereed1286 - Feb 19, 2014 at 2:25 PM

        That’s a valid point.

        But, I’m really not sure how high the Cardinals would have gone if Wainwright demanded say, $25 million a year. They might have given it to him, but with all the young pitching depth they have now, it’s hard to say. In this case, the Cardinals gave their ace a solid offer (even if he did give them a bit of a “hometown” discount) without going too high, where the Reds gave their #3 starter almost the same contract.

      • paperlions - Feb 19, 2014 at 3:03 PM

        Wainwright is also 32.5 as his deal starts and was 1 year removed from TJ surgery when he signed his deal. The Cardinals gambled on his health, we really need to see how he ages and if he can stay healthy from ages 32 through 36 before we know if the gamble will have paid off.

        When his deal ends, Bailey will barely be older than Wainwright is now that his deal is starting.

  7. stlouis1baseball - Feb 19, 2014 at 2:17 PM

    Wow…Homer gets 17.5 a year while Big Sloppy is forced to “survive” on 14 – 15 a year?
    What a slap in the face!

    In all seriousness…I think it’s a great signing by the Redlegs. Homer gets the job done consistently.
    The relative piece of mind the team gets with him on the mound is hard to quantify.
    Good signing Walt.

    • uyf1950 - Feb 19, 2014 at 2:20 PM

      It’s actually slightly more then the $17.5MM per if Bailey’s option isn’t picked up because there is a $5MM buyout (according to MLBTR)

      • stlouis1baseball - Feb 19, 2014 at 2:24 PM

        Oh yeah? Well…well…what if his option IS picked up?

      • uyf1950 - Feb 19, 2014 at 2:39 PM

        His option is for $25MM. If it’s picked up Bailey will make over the 7 years $130MM or what amounts to an AAV of: $18.57MM per.

      • stlouis1baseball - Feb 19, 2014 at 2:43 PM

        Jeesh Dude…there is no winning with you today!

  8. uyf1950 - Feb 19, 2014 at 2:37 PM

    Well with Bailey and Kershaw now locked up (contract wise) for the next several year that basically leaves only 4 quality FA’s still scheduled to hit FA in 2015: Lester, Masterson, Scherzer and Shields. My guess is both Lester and Scherzer will both be re-signed by their current teams and will NOT become FA’s.

    Masterson and Shields are still possibilities to become FA’s. Masterson would probably be in line for a Bailey type contract so it questionable if the Indians will “belly up to the bar” for that many years and dollars. While Shields who will be 33 entering the 2015 season isn’t likely to get a 5 or 6 year deal he could get a 4 years deal in the neighborhood of the $18MM per Bailey signed for. I’m tempted to think though the Shields could be a victim of the dreaded QO.

    • happytwinsfan - Feb 19, 2014 at 4:02 PM

      so shields attached to a QO and masterson will be the closest thing to a whoever wants it the most can overpay for an ace market to follow next off season? depressing.

  9. tfbuckfutter - Feb 19, 2014 at 5:04 PM

    A guy named Homer has $100,000,000 and he didn’t get it from the lottery.

    I don’t think any of us saw that coming.

  10. uyf1950 - Feb 19, 2014 at 5:40 PM

    It will be interesting to see just how much this contract effects any talks between Lester and the Red Sox from here on out until Lester hits FA. Lester will be 31, when or more appropriately IF he becomes a FA after this season. He’s still young enough to get a 6 year guaranteed deal He has expressed a willingness to give the Red Sox a “hometown” discount with the caveat that he said he still wants to get paid which isn’t unreasonable. Obviously he’s better than Bailey but no where near as good as Kershaw. My guess is and it’s only that if the Red Sox want to keep him in the fold and not let him test the market as a FA it’s going to take 6 years / $120MM = $20MM AAV. That would still be a concession to the Red Sox and a little bit of a hometown discount while still be compensated at a pretty decent level.

    • tfbuckfutter - Feb 19, 2014 at 6:10 PM

      Lester is coming off two down seasons though (this year was a nice rebound but still below career norms)

      • uyf1950 - Feb 19, 2014 at 6:18 PM

        I think saying he had 2 down years prior to this past year is a bit much. He had a bad Sept. 2011 as we all know and a bad 2012 but aside from that his career has been pretty steady and good. Certainly better than Bailey’s as I mentioned.

        His ERA+ is over 100 every year except 2012, his WHIP is under 1.3 every year except 2012 he has averaged under 1 HR per 9 innings ever year except 2012, etc… I think it’s safe to say 2012 was really his only bad year.

      • tfbuckfutter - Feb 19, 2014 at 6:46 PM

        No, I’m saying the last two seasons (2013 and 2012).

        Like I said, 2013 was a good year for him, but it was still subpar based on his own standards.

        Big difference between his ERA+ of 109 in 2013 and his numbers from 2008-2011 (especially if you disregard September of 2011).

        His ERA+ for those 4 seasons was a robust 135.

        Hopefully 2013 was a sign he will work his way back toward those norms, but if his numbers from 2013 continue he’s not a $20m a year player.

        Just in case I’m not being completely clear….I’m not saying he’s had 2 bad years. He’s had 1 bad year, and 1 year that is below the standards he set with his performance from 2008-2011. Even if he performs at a steady 109 ERA+ that is wonderful. It’s just not the ace performance he has shown he’s capable of.

      • uyf1950 - Feb 19, 2014 at 7:00 PM

        I get it now. I did indeed misunderstand.

  11. drewy44 - Feb 20, 2014 at 12:32 PM

    Even with saving the Arroyo money, locking up Bailey means there’s probably not enough to keep Latos and Cueto, who, IMHO, are both better than Bailey (even with Cueto’s injury history). Everyone here in the ‘Nati is OMG no-hitters…and I’m like OMG .500 pitcher. Great that he threw the no hitters but at the end of the day they are just two wins that were done in spectacular fashion.

    The next two years might be fine, but they better hope Cingrani and the other stud they have in the farm system pan out.

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