Feb 27, 2014, 2:08 PM EDT
Between now and Opening Day, HardballTalk will take a look at each of baseball’s 30 teams, asking the key questions, the not-so-key questions, and generally breaking down their chances for the 2014 season. Next up: The Chicago White Sox.
The Big Question: Can the White Sox rebuild the league’s worst lineup on the fly?
Chicago went from 85 wins in 2012 to 63 wins last year for the White Sox’s worst season since 1970. Their pitching got worse, but it was nothing compared to the offense falling off a cliff by going from fourth in the league with 748 runs to dead last with 598 runs. It was ugly.
Instead of stocking up on prospects with an eye toward several years down the road general manager Rick Hahn has instead tried to rebuild the lineup in the short and long term, acquiring MLB-ready young talent in Jose Abreu, Adam Eaton, Matt Davidson, and Avisail Garcia. In doing so he traded away a young closer in Addison Reed and a young mid-rotation starter in Hector Santiago, and the White Sox previously parted with Jake Peavy, Alex Rios, Jesse Crain, and Matt Thornton in the middle of last season. Toss in Paul Konerko fading into a part-time role and this is a very different lineup than the .680 OPS crew, but will the results be much different?
Not so long ago Eaton looked like one of the best leadoff prospects in baseball, Abreu has immense upside after putting up monster numbers as a slugger in Cuba, and both Davidson and Garcia have the potential to be solid contributors offensively. But for the White Sox’s lineup to go from horrible to respectable immediately they need just about everything to click and holdover bats Gordon Beckham, Alexei Ramirez, Dayan Viciedo, and Tyler Flowers have disappointed after once showing promise as youngsters themselves.
Chicago’s offense can’t help but be better in 2014, but the White Sox don’t look capable of making the leap into contention and the success or failure of the season depends largely on Abreu living up to the hype and 2-3 other young bats emerging as long-term regulars (plus Chris Sale staying healthy and remaining one of the elite starters in the league, of course). If they can accomplish those things and win 70-something games Hahn and company should be pretty happy with the offseason moves.
What else is going on?
- Thanks to a misleadingly poor win-loss record last season it’s possible that a lot of people don’t realize just how amazing Sale has been as a starter. Among all MLB starting pitchers since 2012–when he moved into the rotation–Sale ranks ninth in ERA and third in ERA+, which adjusts for ballparks and leagues. He’s also fifth in strikeout rate, fourth in K/BB ratio, and ninth in opponents’ OPS. He’s one of the best 5-10 pitchers in baseball and he’s still just 25 years old.
- Much is being made about the decision to trade away a 24-year-old closer coming off a 40-save season, but Reed wasn’t all that great once you get past the save total. He has a 4.17 career ERA, is more fly-ball prone that is ideal in the ninth-inning role, and has mediocre control. And while he’s piled up plenty of saves his actual save conversion rate of 85 percent is nothing special. The wisdom of the trade obviously depends on whether Davidson proves to be a valuable regular, but the idea of cashing in Reed was a smart one. Closers are made, not born, and Nate Jones or Matt Lindstrom likely can handle the job without much dropoff.
- Exactly how good can Abreu be? Projecting foreign players is always tough, but Fan Graphs’ reliable ZiPS system pegs Abreu as a .273 hitter with 26 homers and an .858 OPS as a rookie. To put that in some context, an .858 OPS would have ranked sixth among MLB first basemen last season, one spot behind Freddie Freeman. If the White Sox get that, they should be thrilled with their $68 million investment. (The bad news? Abreu is the only White Sox hitter projected by ZiPS to be above average.)
- Overshadowed by the young, MLB-ready bats brought into the mix is that the White Sox also already had a very good infield prospect in Marcus Semien. Last season between Double-A and Triple-A he hit .284 with 19 homers, 24 steals, more walks (98) than strikeouts (90), and an .880 OPS, including a studly .401 on-base percentage at age 22. Semien getting on base and Abreu knocking him in could be a very nice combo for a long time, perhaps as soon as midseason.
Prediction: Better–and a whole lot more interesting–but still nowhere near good. Fifth place, AL Central.
Jul 5, 2015, 3:02 PM EDT
It looks, at first glance, like another smart rebuilding move for the determined-to-rebuild Phils.
Jul 5, 2015, 1:46 PM EDT
Garcia boasts a 1.69 ERA and 0.88 WHIP in seven starts (48 innings) this season. He’s missed a ton of time to injuries in his career, but most of the major problems have been elbow- and shoulder-related.
Jul 5, 2015, 12:24 PM EDT
Soler wound up missing over a month with a sprained left ankle.
Jul 5, 2015, 11:19 AM EDT
Schoop originally landed on the disabled list on April 18 after being diagnosed with both a PCL tear and MCL strain in his left knee.
Jul 5, 2015, 10:32 AM EDT
Check out this wrap-around style montage of all the July 4 action in Major League Baseball …
Jul 5, 2015, 9:40 AM EDT
Josh Hamilton has a .954 OPS in 10 games with the Rangers. The problem is he’s only played in 10 games.
Jul 5, 2015, 8:53 AM EDT
The best fireworks on July 4 came from the Angels.
Jul 4, 2015, 11:55 PM EDT
Chi Chi Gonzalez posted good results in his first seven major league starts, but he’ll cede his rotation spot to Matt Harrison and head back to Triple-A.
Jul 4, 2015, 11:20 PM EDT
But not even science could master the knuckleball.
Jul 4, 2015, 10:45 PM EDT
Kris Bryant had a monster night at the plate on Saturday against the Marlins.
Jul 4, 2015, 10:26 PM EDT
Jarred Cosart had a rough outing on Saturday and will try to straighten things out at Triple-A.
Jul 4, 2015, 10:15 PM EDT
The Orioles got Jonathan Schoop back after nearly three months. They sent Ryan Flaherty to Triple-A to make room for him.
Jul 4, 2015, 9:25 PM EDT
The Braves are trying to shop an expensive, ineffective Chris Johnson.
Jul 4, 2015, 9:07 PM EDT
The Twins added some bullpen depth in signing Scott Atchison to a minor league deal.
Jul 4, 2015, 8:35 PM EDT
The Giants tried to get creative to catch Bryce Harper napping off of second base.
Jul 4, 2015, 7:45 PM EDT
John Axford is back with the Rockies, ready to continue closing out games.
Jul 4, 2015, 6:55 PM EDT
Ervin Santana is back. Trevor May’s rotation spot has been freed up to make room for him.
Jul 4, 2015, 6:05 PM EDT
Avisail Garcia robbed Chris Davis of a home run. It was as glorious as it sounds.
Jul 4, 2015, 5:28 PM EDT
Ross, 38, is batting .189/.302/.284 over 87 plate appearances this season.
Jul 4, 2015, 4:25 PM EDT
Matt Holliday has been sidelined since June 8 with a Grade 2 strain of his right quadriceps muscle.
- Phillies acquire No. 1 international signing slot for 2015-2016 from the Diamondbacks 0
- Orioles activate Jonathan Schoop after 10-week absence 5
- Settling the Score: Saturday’s results 19
- Video: Kris Bryant hits a grand slam as part of a two-homer, six-RBI night 8
- Stephen Strasburg exits start with tightness in left side 10
- In the wake of the Miguel Cabrera injury the Tigers have few good options 19
- Mets general manager Sandy Alderson says Terry Collins’ job is safe 11
- Calf injury sends Miguel Cabrera to the disabled list for the first time in his career 7
- Settling the Scores: Sunday’s results (99)
- Mike Scioscia says Josh Hamilton should apologize to Angels owner Arte Moreno (90)
- What Yasiel Puig being a pain in the butt means. And what it doesn’t mean. (78)
- Report: Jerry Dipoto “definitely out” as Angels GM (77)
- Brian Dozier is the best second baseman in baseball (72)