Mar 12, 2014, 5:55 PM EST
Bovada released its player prop bets for the 2014 season on Wednesday, providing odds on the AL and NL MVP and Cy Young races, as well as MLB’s home run leader. Here’s a look at what I consider to be the best bets in each category. Please do note, though, all information here is for entertainment purposes only.
This is one spot where I’d seriously think about going with the favorites. I’d say it’s better than 50-50 that Trout or Cabrera will claim the award, and the opportunity is there to bet both and still make some cash. Cabrera, of course, has won two in a row.
Since RBI remains king, Beltre, who has tied for the eighth best odds here, has the best chance to upset them. He’s in position to drive in a ton of runs behind Shin-Soo Choo, Elvis Andrus and Prince Fielder in the Texas order.
My favorite sleeper pick doesn’t get listed by Bovada, which probably means he’d get 50:1 odds. That’s Carlos Santana, who is also in position to drive in a whole bunch of runs behind Michael Bourn, Nick Swisher and Jason Kipnis in the Cleveland lineup.
Ramirez was the NL’s best hitter in the half-season he was healthy last year, and his Dodgers are the clear favorites in the NL West. I see him making a run at a batting title and hitting about 30 homers. He’s my pick for MVP, long odds or no.
Goldschmidt has the third best odds here behind Andrew McCutchen (6/1) and Joey Votto (7/1). Because, again, RBI is king, I’d say he’s more likely to win than either of those two. However, for it to happen, he’ll need the Diamondbacks to make the postseason.
Bruce is going to have at least one 40-homer, 120-RBI season before he’s done. I doubt he’ll actually be a better player than Votto, but he’s the one of the two more likely to win an MVP, mostly because he gets to hit behind the guy with the .430 OBP.
AL Cy Young
Bovada and I agree: AL Cy Young is the most wide open of the four major awards. Their top choice here, Yu Darvish, has the highest odds (8/1) of the favorites. I don’t have a real favorite here, either. My projections call for Verlander, Hernandez, Darvish, David Price, Cobb and Chris Sale to all finish with ERAs in the 3.00-3.20 range, with no one lower than that. I’d be tempted to throw a couple of bucks on Cobb, but I’d probably otherwise shy away.
NL Cy Young
I’d go with the favorite here: Kershaw seems like he should be closer to 4:1 to repeat, in my opinion. If he doesn’t pitch up to his ability, that might open the door for Bumgarner. One sleeper pick who didn’t get odds from Bovada: Homer Bailey. He’d be really nice at 50:1 or 66:1.
MLB home run leader
I have nine guys projected to hit at least 34 homers this season:
Bovada has Davis as the favorite at 8/1, followed by Cabrera at 9/1 and Stanton at 10/1. So we line up rather closely here. Bruce at 25/1 seems like the best bet to me: very good HR ballpark, very durable, three straight 30-homer seasons. Trumbo at 20/1 isn’t bad, either.
For a long shot, Upton is rather tempting. I have him at 30 homers, but he’s capable of doing better. Last year, he hit 12 in April alone, and he’s just now entering his age-26 season.
Nov 25, 2014, 10:12 PM EST
Max Scherzer, a client of Scott Boras, seems comfortable with slow-playing this market. We’ve seen loads of rumors and reports involving the other prominent free agent ace, Jon Lester, but it’s hard to identify which teams are in the running at the moment for Max. The Giants may be one …
Nov 25, 2014, 8:47 PM EST
Via Jeeho Yoo of Seoul’s Yonhap News, right-hander Lucas Harrell and outfielder Jim Adduci both agreed to one-year deals Tuesday in the Korea Baseball Organization — Harrell with the KIA Tigers for $900K and Adduci with the Lotte Giants for $650K.
Nov 25, 2014, 7:51 PM EST
Arizona has been mentioned before as a potential landing spot for Cuban outfielder Yasmany Tomas, but it was never really considered a strong likelihood. Maybe that perception should be changing …
Nov 25, 2014, 6:38 PM EST
The Red Sox have officially introduced Hanley Ramirez and his new four-year, $88 million pact. Juan Francisco was DFA’d in the process.
Nov 25, 2014, 5:40 PM EST
Darvish missed the final six weeks of the season with an elbow injury.
Nov 25, 2014, 5:25 PM EST
Possibly well-intentioned, possibly grandstanding. But it’s hard to see how this is in Congress’ bailiwick.
Nov 25, 2014, 4:46 PM EST
What would happen to Lonnie Chisenhall?
Nov 25, 2014, 3:46 PM EST
Based on what we know at the moment, the Cubs’ offer is the richest one out there.
Nov 25, 2014, 3:15 PM EST
Swarzak was due for a raise to around $1.5 million via arbitration.
Nov 25, 2014, 3:03 PM EST
Technology itself hasn’t changed how reporters do their jobs. Rather reader demand, newly obvious by technology, has done so.
Nov 25, 2014, 1:47 PM EST
Matsuzaka spent the past two seasons with the Mets.
Nov 25, 2014, 1:20 PM EST
Martinez served as Joe Maddon’s right-hand man since 2008.
Nov 25, 2014, 1:00 PM EST
They’ve been linked to Justin Upton and Matt Kemp. But another power bat is a possibility.
Nov 25, 2014, 12:46 PM EST
Lavarnway was once a top-100 prospect.
Nov 25, 2014, 12:15 PM EST
Breslow spent the past three seasons with the Red Sox.
Nov 25, 2014, 11:31 AM EST
Included: Fred and Jeff.
Nov 25, 2014, 11:03 AM EST
At least to the extent you still have them. Because it ain’t happening.
Nov 25, 2014, 10:30 AM EST
The first rule of Hall of Fame Ballot Club: Use all ten slots on your ballot. The second rule of Hall of Fame Ballot Club: USE ALL TEN SLOTS ON YOUR BALLOT.
Nov 25, 2014, 10:15 AM EST
Nelson was the ninth overall pick in the 2004 draft.
Nov 25, 2014, 9:55 AM EST
The Padres are sniffing around too.
- Red Sox announce four-year, $88 million deal with Hanley Ramirez, DFA Juan Francisco 21
- The Cubs have offered Jon Lester “north of $135 million” 51
- Pablo Sandoval’s deal: five years, $98 million plus an option 40
- Kyle Seager, Mariners close to $100 million extension 25
- The 2015 Hall of Fame ballot is out — Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez are new on the ballot 286
- So what would the Red Sox look like with Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval? 49
- UPDATE: Red Sox finalizing a 4-year, $88 million deal with Hanley Ramirez, with a vesting option 35
- MLB players react to Odell Beckham, Jr. catch on Sunday Night Football 27
- The 2015 Hall of Fame ballot is out — Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez are new on the ballot (286)
- More Hall of Fame ballots like Adam Rubin’s please (136)
- UPDATE: The Pablo Sandoval-Red Sox deal is done, pending a physical (133)
- Report: Pablo Sandoval chose the Red Sox over the Giants because he felt disrespected (131)
- Report: “There is a 90 percent chance that Pablo Sandoval will sign with the Red Sox” (130)